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11/20/07 Trading Notebook

Popped a trade out of the box after significant gains by EUR/USD and then started falling to support regions:



8:40 AM -

Sell 100,000 at 1.4789

S/L - 1.4805

T/P - 1.4770 (50.0 Fib Line)

9:24 - And then it just sat there… stagnant - no more than 5 pips up or 3 pips down. Oh well… Like watching a rope freeze.

The fundamentals say it might sit there all day until the FOMC meeting minutes are published at 1:00 PM. Going to sit on the trade all the same.

After 2 hours, it was up 5 PIPs, so I took it.

11:51 AM

Buy 100,000 at 1.4784.

Net Gain of $50.00



That's it for today. Made 1 trade and $50.00.

11/19/07 Trading Notes

This morning, I woke up at 7:00 AM, and the EUR/USD stayed in a flatline, pinballing between the 38.2 resistance line and 61.8 support line. I only have a few hours to trade today. Last night, I finished my Forex Revolution book. It was good, for the most part. It wasn't very indepth, but gave a great overview of Forex and told some great stories about the countries involved and the risks at hand.

My bet today is that EUR/USD will indeed climb upward and reach those top trendlines I marked last night. I'm still going to look for my crossover points, however. I just missed one an hour ago.



First nibble of the morning - GBP/USD - Possibly looking to break out up or down soon...



7:21 AM - Just suffered through my first requote on MT4 - Green was launching upward and I put in an order to buy at 2.0524, but it shot up nearly 5 pips and I only had a 1 pip deviation set so it cancelled my trade. The bar ended up going up to 2.0534 before calming down. I ended up not getting in the trade.

7:27 - Sell Order after seeing technicals hit resistance.

Sell 100,00 GBP/USD at 2.0535

Stop Loss at 2.0549

Take Profit at 2.0519 (20 Pips)

Hit a resistance twice and bounced right back and then blew right through it and popped the SL in about 3 minutes. The problem here is that I bet against my plan. Shame, shame, shame.

7:29 - Stop Loss Order

Buy 100,000 GBP/USD at 2.0549

Loss of $140.00

Looks like I have some more work to do today to get out of the hole.

8:11 AM - Crossing indexes - White crossed yellow and I sold 100,000 of GBP/USD:

(Also saw evening star 5 bars earlier)



Set stop loss limits at 20 pips and profits at 30 pips.

8:45 AM - Well, 2 bad trades to start the morning. After the 8:30 bell, the reverse stopped and started inching higher slowly.

Stop Loss - Buy 100,000 at 2.0545 - Loss of $250.00



Saw another crossing mark at 4:45 GMT (9:45 AM) and then it flatlined again for a while.  But then started to rise.

BUY EUR/USD 100,000 at 1.4662

Stop/Loss 1.4648

Take Profit 1.4683

Heading out and leaving this one on autopilot to hit the profits!!

12:00 PM - Adjusted the take profit line to 1.4670 to get out profitably as the line just hovered around for several hours. It popped about 1:00 PM

Net gain - 8 PIPS - $80.00

The market seems VERY flat right now and probably will stay that way through the week.

11/18/07 Trading Notes

A Rising Wedge??

Have been reading about interpreting charts and came across several bearish signals that might hit during 11/19:

There appears to be a Resistance Candlestick reversal showing similar to the one shown on stockcharts.com:



See the one I've identified in EUR/USD:



That appears to say that EUR/USD will cap at 1.4714 or slightly higher as it hits both resistance and the effects of the wedge.

Currently, there are no immediate signs in MACD but Stoch and CCI show overbought. There might be one more support before testing the top resistance target.

Tinkering with the idea of entering in the following trade:

Sell Limit of 1.4714 with Stop Loss at 1.4724 and Buy Limit of +30 Pips or 1.4684

I don't know how to do that on my demo account in MT4 so sent an e-mail to them to ask how.

8:41 PM (11/18) - The White is showing signs of crossing the yellow, but it hasn't reached that resistance level yet. Going to wait for e-mail back from traders to see what to do. Support is falling below my bottom trendline showing that it may break that trendline.

Through a couple of errors in setting up the MT4 account, I ended up with multiple lots all with about the same parameters:

SELL ORDER:

8:47 PM - EUR/USD

Sell 1.00 Lots at 1.4671

Stop Loss at 1.4687

Take Profit at 1.4647



The 15 minute chart is telling me that my Stop Limits are too tight and that it might still hit it before going down.

It started to fall and I closed one of the two trades out with +70 profit (only 7 pips, but that's something.)

Set the take profit on the other trade at -20 and going to bed.

In order to go to bed, I popped the profits off at 11 pips and went to be up 18 pips. Going to research Fibbonacci tonight.



(That wedge is toast on the bottom side. By the way…)

11/16/07 Trading Notebook

Demo Account, Forex.com

Woke up 7:00AM (CST), all 4 markets I was watching had positive gains over the overnight. All 4 would have been worth trading long from just a few hours earlier.

There was some TIC news at 8:00 AM which didn't have much impact. But all four seemed to start coming down after 8:00 AM.

Market Snapshot - 8:12 AM:



8:40 AM

Eyeballing AUD/USD because it was a decending wedge and the white getting very close to the yellow. MACD falling, looking good to pop below soon…



8:44 AM

Sold 100,000 @ 0.891450

Once it crossed the line, it dropped sharply in the next few minutes. 0.8905

Set Stop Loss at .89390 (25 Pips above)

Looking to take profit at the next level where white crosses yellow on the upslope.

9:15 AM

Getting good profit on the AUD sale. Also watching GBP/USD and EUR/USD which both crossed the yellow line but just waiting for MACD to show 0.00 or below before I go short on both.

9:17 AM

Recalculated Stop and Limit to minimize loss and guarantee profit

OCO - Limit of 50 PIPs - Stop Loss of 0.89235

9:21 AM

NO Trades on EUR/USD and GBP/USD yet since they don't show all the positive signs:



9:30 AM

Sold 100,000 GBP/USD @ 2.043020

Setting Stop Limit of 20 PIPs, Profit of 50 PIPs



NO Trade on EUR/USD - Was slower to show all the marks, and didn't want to get into 3 trades at a time, plus was too late to pull trigger on it:



9:46 - Changed Limit on AUD/USD trade to .8872 because of Support Mark found earlier in the day:



9:48 AM - Stop Limit on GBP/USD

Stop limit hit on GBP/USD at 2.045000 - 20 PIPs away from Buy.

TRADE DETAILS:

Sold - 100,000 2.043020 at 10:30 AM $204,302

Buy - 100,000 2.045000 at 10:48 AM $204,500

Net: $-198.00



The AUD/USD trade has hit 72 several times, but there's a +3 spread and not getting there on the Buy side… It's driving me crazy to watch.

10:00 AM Just watching the spread on Forex.com, the spread is increasing to +5 at times and then going down to 3. Haven't seen it any less than that on AUD/USD.

10:04 AM - Something must've popped in the news - Green went straight up at 10:00. Near stop loss limits… Ugh oh…



Wanting to try to get out before 12:00PM on Friday. That's when market slows down for weekend.

11:49 AM - White crossed back over yellow and had to pull the trigger manually to maintain some sort of profit.



TRADE DETAILS for AUD/USD:

Sold - 100,000 0.89145 at 9:44 AM $100,000

Buy - 100,000 0.88984 at 11:49 AM $100,000

Net: $161.00

An actual profit!

(Note: Had it not been near 12:00 PM, I should've flipped to the other side as the conditions were then ripe to go long on the trade.)

Total on the day - Lost $37.00

Objective for upcoming week - reset account to what my real account will actually look like ($5,000) and then restart all records for Sunday/Monday.

Note - Started reading Forex Revolution by Peter Rosenstreich, 2005 Financial Times Press

Example of when NOT to trade:

Shown here, the white EMA crosses the yellow EMA on the upswing at around 09:00AM (Times are GMT).

This meets the criteria of White passing Yellow

This meets the criteria of the MACD being in positive vertical bars.

This does not meet the criteria of the MACD being above 0.00 (until 3 bars later.)

This does not meet the criteria of the Stoch and CCI showing an overbought status. They do.

NO TRADE

My Forex Trading System

Outlined below is my first Forex System. I'm going to trade on 5 Minute and possibly 1 Minute charts on AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF

Trading in Lots of 100,000 until system is well-proven.

Graph Setup:

EMA of 3, 7 and 25

MACD of 8,17 and 9

Stoch of 8,3 and 3

CCI of 8 with Limits at 100 and -100

Set Stop Losses of all trades at 25 PIPs

Enter Long If:

1. The 3 EMA crosses the 25 EMA
2. Both Stoch lines are heading up but not overbought by Stoch and CCI charts
3. MACD is 0.00 or above and vertical lines are in the positive

   Enter Short If:

4. The 3 EMA crosses the 25 EMA
5. Both Stoch lines are heading down but not overbought by Stoch and CCI charts
6. MACD is 0.00 or below and vertical lines are in the positive

   Exit Rules:

7. Warning if the 3 EMA crosses the 7 EMA - That's point you should begin to watch.
8. Exit if the 3 EMA crosses the 25 EMA in the opposite direction of trade
9. If MACD falls opposite side of 0.00